us-gov-shutdown-tracker

Government shutdowns reduce liquidity by draining the Treasury General Account (TGA), which decreases bank reserves and typically tightens funding conditions. This Skill tracks TGA, bank reserves, EFFR, and SOFR via FRED API to quantify these liquidity impacts and identify stealth tightening across shutdown episodes.

Run the analysis script with default settings to ingest FRED data, compute weekly TGA and reserves trends, calculate daily EFFR and SOFR, derive SOFR premium, and classify liquidity status. The Skill outputs structured JSON, visualizations, and narrative conclusions automatically.

EFFR reflects overnight federal funds rates across traditional bank lending; SOFR is the secured overnight financing rate based on Treasury repo transactions. This Skill computes SOFR premium (the spread) to assess liquidity conditions and compare tightening across QE versus QT regimes during shutdowns.

Yes. This Skill applies historical comparison analysis to evaluate TGA, reserves, EFFR, and SOFR behavior across past shutdown episodes, enabling you to assess how current shutdowns differ and identify stealth tightening patterns across regimes.

The Skill generates structured JSON data files containing weekly TGA and reserves trends, daily EFFR and SOFR values, SOFR premium calculations, liquidity status classifications (EASING/TIGHTENING/STABLE/MIXED), and accompanying PNG charts summarizing findings.

Yes. The Skill requires a FRED API key to ingest Treasury General Account, bank reserves, EFFR, and SOFR data. You must obtain a free key from the Federal Reserve Economic Data portal before running the analysis scripts.