what-if-oracle

Name: what-if-oracle
Availability: InStock
Author: estrella-231

Structure speculative what-if questions into multi-branch scenario analyses with probabilities and responses.

Updated May 24, 2026

Search Tags:#probability #decision support #contingency planning #risk analysis #scenario analysis #possibility space #strategic options

Ready to run

npx skills add https://github.com/Estrella-231/Mathematical_modeling_tongmeng --skill what-if-oracle-estrella-231

💬 Prompt for ChatGPT / Claude Chat▼

Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: what-if-oracle
Source: https://github.com/Estrella-231/Mathematical_modeling_tongmeng/tree/main/.agents/skills/what-if-oracle
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/Estrella-231/Mathematical_modeling_tongmeng --skill what-if-oracle-estrella-231

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

It reduces decision risk by turning speculative “what if…” questions into a structured possibility-space analysis with clear branches, assumptions, triggers, and consequences.

Core Features & Use Cases

Possibility-space branching: Generates multiple scenario branches (best, likely, worst, wild card, contrarian, and second-order effects) instead of a single-point forecast.
Actionable scenario outputs: For each branch, defines probability, timeframe, confidence, narrative, key assumptions, trigger conditions, and required responses.
Synthesis for decisions: Produces a probability distribution, robust no-regret actions, hedge actions, decision tripwires, and the “1% insight” to surface hidden assumptions.

Quick Start

Use the what-if-oracle skill to analyze: “What if the main traffic policy change happens in the next quarter—what possibilities, risks, and responses should we prepare for?”

Frequently Asked Questions about what-if-oracle

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema

How do I analyze multiple scenarios for uncertain strategic decisions?▼

Scenario analysis for uncertain strategic decisions structures speculative questions into multi-branch possibility spaces. It generates 4-6 branches with calibrated probabilities, deriving consequences, trigger conditions, and required responses for each outcome.

What is the best way to prepare contingency plans for second-order risks?▼

Contingency planning for second-order risks maps wild card and contrarian scenario branches to define probability, timeframe, confidence, and narrative. It synthesizes robust no-regret actions, hedge actions, and decision tripwires to prepare responses.

How do I build a probability distribution for possibility space mapping?▼

Possibility space mapping builds a probability distribution by decomposing scenario variables, timeframes, and context. It generates 4-6 calibrated branches—best, likely, worst, wild card, contrarian, and second-order effects—then synthesizes them into a distribution.

Can I use scenario analysis for contingency preparation across any timeframe?▼

Scenario analysis for contingency preparation applies to uncertain decisions across planning, risk analysis, and strategic options regardless of timeframe. You must decompose the scenario variable, timeframe, and context to generate calibrated branches and hedge actions.

How does scenario analysis handle hidden assumptions in risk analysis?▼

Risk analysis handles hidden assumptions by surfacing the 1% insight during possibility space mapping. It structures speculative questions into scenario branches with explicit key assumptions, trigger conditions, and required responses to expose underlying biases.

What are the limitations of using branching for strategic options evaluation?▼

Branching for strategic options evaluation requires decomposing scenario variables and generating calibrated probabilities. It is limited by the accuracy of your assumptions and triggers, meaning poor input context will yield unreliable hedge actions and decision tripwires.