decision-trees

Name: decision-trees
Availability: InStock
Author: tarotmansa

Calculate expected value for options in a decision tree.

Updated Feb 7, 2026

Search Tags:#decision analysis #probability #decision-making #risk analysis #decision trees #expected value #ev calculator

Ready to run

npx skills add https://github.com/tarotmansa/moltguild --skill decision-trees

💬 Prompt for ChatGPT / Claude Chat▼

Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: decision-trees
Source: https://github.com/tarotmansa/moltguild/tree/main/skills/decision-trees
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/tarotmansa/moltguild --skill decision-trees

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

Decision trees help users structure complex choices with uncertain outcomes by turning qualitative options into quantitative expected value comparisons so they can identify the option with the highest rational payoff.

Core Features & Use Cases

Expected Value Calculation: Compute EV for each option by summing probability × value across outcomes.
Interactive & JSON Modes: Build trees interactively or supply a structured JSON file for batch analysis and reproducible results.
Use Case: Compare launch vs. no-launch for a product by modeling success/failure probabilities and associated monetary outcomes to produce an EV-based recommendation.

Quick Start

Ask the assistant to evaluate a decision by calculating expected values for each option given probabilities and outcome values.

Frequently Asked Questions about decision-trees

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema

How do I calculate expected value for a decision tree with multiple outcomes?▼

To calculate expected value for a decision tree, compute the sum of probability multiplied by value across all outcomes for each competing option. This Skill automates that calculation, validating probability totals to identify the option with the highest rational payoff.

Can I use JSON to batch process expected value calculations for product strategy decisions?▼

Yes, you can supply a structured JSON file to batch process expected value calculations for product strategy decisions. This allows for reproducible results when comparing multiple options like launching versus not launching a product.

What is expected value analysis used for in business and investing scenarios?▼

Expected value analysis in business and investing scenarios is used to structure complex choices with uncertain outcomes by turning qualitative options into quantitative comparisons, helping you evaluate risk and identify the option with the highest monetary or utility payoff.

How do I build a decision tree interactively to compare risk analysis options?▼

You can build a decision tree interactively by asking the assistant to evaluate a decision, providing the options, probabilities, and monetary outcome values. The Skill validates the input and outputs the expected value calculations with a recommended option.

Does this expected value calculator work for personal decisions or only operations strategy?▼

This expected value calculator works for both personal decisions and operations strategy. It is applicable to any scenario where outcomes can be assigned probabilities and monetary or utility values, including business, investing, and product strategy.

What happens if the probabilities in my decision tree do not total 100 percent?▼

If probabilities in your decision tree do not total correctly, the Skill validates probability totals during input processing. Accurate probability distributions are required to ensure the expected value calculations and resulting recommendations are mathematically valid.