Calculate expected value for options in a decision tree.
npx skills add https://github.com/tarotmansa/moltguild --skill decision-trees
Please help me install this Agent Skill. Skill: decision-trees Source: https://github.com/tarotmansa/moltguild/tree/main/skills/decision-trees Command: npx skills add https://github.com/tarotmansa/moltguild --skill decision-trees
Decision trees help users structure complex choices with uncertain outcomes by turning qualitative options into quantitative expected value comparisons so they can identify the option with the highest rational payoff.
Ask the assistant to evaluate a decision by calculating expected values for each option given probabilities and outcome values.
High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.
To calculate expected value for a decision tree, compute the sum of probability multiplied by value across all outcomes for each competing option. This Skill automates that calculation, validating probability totals to identify the option with the highest rational payoff.
Yes, you can supply a structured JSON file to batch process expected value calculations for product strategy decisions. This allows for reproducible results when comparing multiple options like launching versus not launching a product.
Expected value analysis in business and investing scenarios is used to structure complex choices with uncertain outcomes by turning qualitative options into quantitative comparisons, helping you evaluate risk and identify the option with the highest monetary or utility payoff.
You can build a decision tree interactively by asking the assistant to evaluate a decision, providing the options, probabilities, and monetary outcome values. The Skill validates the input and outputs the expected value calculations with a recommended option.
This expected value calculator works for both personal decisions and operations strategy. It is applicable to any scenario where outcomes can be assigned probabilities and monetary or utility values, including business, investing, and product strategy.
If probabilities in your decision tree do not total correctly, the Skill validates probability totals during input processing. Accurate probability distributions are required to ensure the expected value calculations and resulting recommendations are mathematically valid.
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