forecasting

Produce calibrated forecasts with explicit probability estimates and track outcomes.

90|16|Updated Mar 21, 2026

Search Tags:#calibration #uncertainty #forecasting #risk-analysis #brier-score #prediction-ledger #bayesian-updating

Ready to run

npx skills add https://github.com/WingedGuardian/GENesis-AGI --skill forecasting-wingedguardian

💬 Prompt for ChatGPT / Claude Chat▼

Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: forecasting
Source: https://github.com/WingedGuardian/GENesis-AGI/tree/main/src/genesis/skills/forecasting
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/WingedGuardian/GENesis-AGI --skill forecasting-wingedguardian

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

Forecasting under uncertainty is error-prone without calibrated probabilities and a verifiable track record. This Skill provides a framework to produce probabilistic forecasts with calibrated confidence levels and to log outcomes for continuous improvement.

Core Features & Use Cases

Calibrated forecasts with explicit probability estimates and documented rationale.
Brier score tracking to measure forecast accuracy over time.
Prediction ledger for auditability and post-mortem analysis across domains (technology, markets, projects).
Support for Bayesian updating and forward-looking risk assessment.

Quick Start

Provide a calibrated forecast for a user-specified topic and log the confidence and expected resolution date.

Frequently Asked Questions about forecasting

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema

What is a calibrated forecast and how does it help with risk analysis?▼

A calibrated forecast provides explicit probability estimates with documented rationale for risk analysis. It ensures your confidence levels accurately reflect reality, preventing overconfidence in uncertain scenarios.

How do I track forecasting accuracy over time using a Brier score?▼

You track forecasting accuracy using a Brier score by logging predicted probabilities alongside actual outcomes in a prediction ledger. This measures historical performance and enables continuous improvement.

Can I apply Bayesian updating to refine predictions as new evidence emerges?▼

You can apply Bayesian updating to refine predictions as new evidence emerges. This method systematically adjusts your explicit probability estimates to reflect newly available data across relevant domains.

How do I maintain an auditable prediction ledger for post-mortem analysis?▼

Maintain an auditable prediction ledger for post-mortem analysis by logging each forecast's confidence level, documented rationale, and expected resolution date alongside the eventual outcomes to ensure long-term learning.

Does this forecasting approach work for project, market, and technology predictions?▼

This forecasting approach works for project, market, and technology predictions by generating explicit probability estimates and tracking outcomes across diverse domains through a unified prediction ledger.

What is the best way to start producing calibrated forecasts with trackable outcomes?▼

The best way to start producing calibrated forecasts with trackable outcomes is to define a specific topic, assign an explicit probability estimate with a documented rationale, and log the expected resolution date.