risk-analysis

Quantify extreme portfolio losses with VaR, CVaR, and stress-test analytics.

Updated Apr 9, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/JacobHsu/vibe-trading-agent --skill risk-analysis-jacobhsu
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: risk-analysis
Source: https://github.com/JacobHsu/vibe-trading-agent/tree/main/agent/src/skills/risk-analysis
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/JacobHsu/vibe-trading-agent --skill risk-analysis-jacobhsu

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

Portfolio architects and traders often rely on basic metrics that miss the full shape of downside risk, so this skill consolidates VaR, CVaR, drawdown, Monte Carlo, stress-test, and tail-risk analytics into a single reference point for understanding losses beyond the headline numbers.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Multi-method VaR & CVaR evaluation: provides historical, parametric, and Monte Carlo approaches plus expected shortfall comparisons to show how much capital is at risk at the 95% and 99% levels.
  • Drawdown, Monte Carlo, and EVT analytics: reports maximum drawdown timing, simulates thousands of future paths, and fits generalized Pareto tails for kurtosis, skewness, and tail-type interpretation.
  • Stress testing and scenario design: includes historical periods and hypothetical shocks so you can quantify losses against a chosen portfolio mix and verify whether risk budgets or stop-loss thresholds trigger.
  • Use case: run this analysis on backtest metrics to determine whether a newly proposed strategy stays within the allocated risk envelope before deploying real capital.

Quick Start

Ask the risk-analysis skill to compute VaR, CVaR, drawdown, and stress-test impacts for the latest backtest performance.

Frequently Asked Questions about risk-analysis

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate VaR and CVaR to measure extreme portfolio losses?

To measure extreme portfolio losses, calculate VaR and CVaR using historical, parametric, or Monte Carlo approaches. This consolidates expected shortfall comparisons to quantify capital at risk at the 95% and 99% confidence levels.

What is the best way to stress-test a portfolio against historical and hypothetical shocks?

The best way to stress-test portfolios is applying historical periods and hypothetical shocks to quantify losses. This verifies whether your chosen portfolio mix triggers risk budgets or stop-loss thresholds during extreme market scenarios.

How does Monte Carlo simulation work for evaluating portfolio tail risk?

Monte Carlo simulation evaluates portfolio tail risk by simulating thousands of future price paths. It pairs with Extreme Value Theory to fit generalized Pareto tails, interpreting kurtosis, skewness, and tail-type for downside exposure.

Can I use backtest results to check if a new strategy stays within my risk envelope?

You can run risk analysis on backtest results to check if a new strategy stays within your risk envelope. It measures drawdown timing and stress-test impacts to verify risk control before deploying real capital.

Does portfolio risk analysis require specific dependencies or external components?

Portfolio risk analysis requires no external dependencies or components. It operates as a standalone reference point to evaluate drawdown, tail risk, and stress outcomes directly from your backtest metrics or live portfolio inputs.