scenario-analysis

Investment scenario forecasts are generated by producing three structured scenarios—bull, base, and bear—with explicit assumptions, return ranges, and milestones. The analysis requires access to diligence sources, family rules, and overlays to output a source-backed forecast for the IC memo.

Structuring investment risk scenarios for an IC memo involves defining bull, base, and bear cases with explicit assumptions, expected outcomes, and watch-list metrics. This disciplined probability framing supports governance, risk assessment, and adversarial testing.

To forecast investment returns, the scenario analysis integrates diligence outputs, family philosophy, and overlays to produce a coherent forecast. It generates per-scenario metrics to watch and maneuvering milestones that confirm or refute the investment case.

Scenario analysis is designed for diligence-supported opportunities and requires access to family rules, overlays, and diligence sources. Without these inputs, it cannot produce the coherent, source-backed forecasts needed to align with the IC memo workflow.

Adversarial testing integrates with investment scenario forecasts through the devil-advocate workflow. The structured bull, base, and bear scenarios provide explicit assumptions and milestones that the devil-advocate process challenges to strengthen the IC memo.

Investment scenario outputs should align with the recommended format for drafting IC memos and be emitted to deals/{deal-id}.md. The results must cite all diligence sources used to support the bull, base, and bear probability framing.