What problem does it solve? Founders commit to budgets, fundraising, and major bets without knowing how much room for error their financial plan has or which assumption would break it first. This Skill stress-tests a base-case forecast by building coherent Base/Upside/Downside scenarios and running single-variable sensitivities to expose the plan's most fragile assumptions, breakpoints, and margin of safety. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Scenario Analysis: Re-runs the full three-statement model under coherent bundles of interrelated assumptions (e.g., downside = slower growth + price pressure + higher COGS + slower collections) and compares revenue, net income, operating cash flow, funding needed, runway, and covenant status. - Sensitivity & Fragility Ranking: Sweeps one variable at a time, computes output elasticity, and combines it with assumption confidence to rank the most-critical-and-most-uncertain drivers in tornado order. - Breakpoint & Margin-of-Safety Search: Solves for the exact value of each critical variable where the plan hits a funding gap, breaches a covenant, or runs out of cash, and quantifies how far the base assumption can move before failure. - Use Case: A founder asks "What if revenue growth is slower and competitors squeeze my prices?" The Skill re-runs the plan under a coherent downside, finds the growth rate at which funding needs exceed the revolver, flags a covenant breach, and recommends monitoring weekly bookings and average selling price. ## Quick Start Ask the AI to stress-test your base financial forecast with base, upside, and downside scenarios and identify which single assumption is most likely to break the plan.
