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sys:napkin-math

Calculate required daily and monthly growth and customer counts from a revenue target.

3|Updated Mar 31, 2026
Search Tags:#startup#gap-analysis#sensitivity-analysis#funnel-analysis#revenue-model#growth-planning#napkin-math
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/rickmanelius/skills --skill sys-napkin-math
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: sys:napkin-math
Source: https://github.com/rickmanelius/skills/tree/main/plugins/save-your-startup/skills/sys-napkin-math
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/rickmanelius/skills --skill sys-napkin-math

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

Many founders hold a revenue target without walking the numbers backward to see what it actually requires; this Skill converts a high-level revenue goal into concrete customer, funnel, and audience metrics so you can tell if the plan is realistic or off by orders of magnitude.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Stepwise funnel modeling: Converts an annual revenue target to monthly revenue, required paying customers, free/trial user counts, and total audience reach.
  • Gap analysis & sensitivity: Compares current growth to required growth, quantifies X-fold gaps, and tests levers like pricing, conversion, premium tiers, and paid acquisition.
  • Scenario stress tests: Generates base, conservative, exceptional, and worst-case outcomes and highlights which assumptions matter most.
  • Use case: Evaluate whether a $1M ARR target at a given price point is achievable in 12 months given current customers and organic growth rates.

Quick Start

Provide your revenue target and timeline, your price or average revenue per customer, and current customers or growth rate and ask me to build a back-of-napkin funnel model.

Frequently Asked Questions about sys:napkin-math

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate the customer growth needed to hit my revenue target?▼

Walk backward from your revenue target by converting annual revenue to monthly requirements, calculating needed paying customers, free trial users, and audience reach. This gap analysis compares current growth to required growth and quantifies the difference.

What inputs do I need to build a startup revenue model and stress-test scenarios?▼

Provide your revenue target, timeline, price or average revenue per customer, and current customers or growth rate. The model uses these inputs to generate base, conservative, exceptional, and worst-case scenario outcomes.

Can I use napkin math to test pricing and conversion levers for my ARR target?▼

Yes, sensitivity analysis tests levers like pricing, conversion rates, premium tiers, and paid acquisition. It highlights which assumptions matter most for achieving your annual recurring revenue target.

What is the best way to model a funnel from audience reach to paying customers?▼

Stepwise funnel modeling converts a high-level revenue goal into concrete metrics by calculating required paying customers, free or trial user counts, and total audience reach needed to hit the target.

How do I know if my revenue goal is realistic or off by orders of magnitude?▼

By converting the revenue target into a back-of-napkin funnel model and comparing required growth to current organic growth rates, you can tell if the plan is achievable or significantly misaligned.

Does napkin math work for small teams estimating ARR without complex financial tools?▼

This approach is designed for startup founders and small teams estimating ARR. It requires only basic inputs like revenue, price, and current growth to produce a funnel-based back-of-napkin model.

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