us-market-bubble-detector

You evaluate US market bubble risk by collecting Put/Call ratio, VIX, FINRA margin debt, breadth metrics, IPO counts, and price acceleration data to compute a reproducible numeric bubble score. This mechanical scoring applies defined thresholds to generate a final risk rating and actionable guidance.

To calculate a market bubble score, you need current Put/Call ratios, VIX levels, FINRA margin debt year-over-year changes, market breadth metrics, IPO counts, and price acceleration percentiles. These inputs drive the two-phase quantitative scoring system for objective risk assessment.

Yes, the bubble detection scoring includes a strict qualitative adjustment phase capped at +0 to +3 points. This phase requires measurable evidence like Google Trends, mainstream media coverage, and direct non-investor reports, applying a confirmation-bias prevention checklist.

Yes, you can apply this bubble risk score to both US and Japanese equity markets. It supports portfolio risk decisions, profit-taking guidance, entry timing, and short-selling scenarios by providing stage-based actions and composite short-selling conditions based on the final score.

The bubble risk score translates into a risk budget recommendation by mapping the final 0-15 score to a bubble phase ranging from Normal to Critical. It then provides stair-step profit-taking guidance and ATR stop levels to manage equity positions mechanically.

Using margin debt and VIX for bubble detection is limited by the strict two-phase scoring process, which caps qualitative adjustments to prevent subjective bias. The system requires verifiable data sources and documented evidence, ensuring limitations are managed through mechanical thresholds rather than narrative assumptions.