variance-diagnosis

Diagnose why a metric missed its forecast by attributing the variance to line-item drivers.

Updated Aug 22, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/fritzgeraldz/Vibe-Managing --skill variance-diagnosis-fritzgeraldz
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: variance-diagnosis
Source: https://github.com/fritzgeraldz/Vibe-Managing/tree/main/skills/growth/variance-diagnosis
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/fritzgeraldz/Vibe-Managing --skill variance-diagnosis-fritzgeraldz

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve? When a business metric misses its target, founders often see the total miss but not the root cause behind it. This Skill decomposes the variance into line-item drivers, checks co-moving related metrics to catch misleading readings, and recommends the single corrective lever most likely to fix it. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Top Movers Attribution: Decomposes a metric into its line items and ranks each by contribution to the total variance, identifying whether the cause is concentrated or diffuse. - Co-Movement Interpretation: Tests the variance against related metrics to distinguish a genuine performance change from an artifact, such as lower expenses caused by stalled activity rather than efficiency. - Root-Cause Classification and Lever Recommendation: Classifies the cause as execution failure, wrong assumption, external shift, or data error, then maps it to a corrective lever with owner, deadline, and approval requirements. - Use Case: A founder asks why gross margin came in at 48% against a 56% forecast. The Skill attributes 90% of the miss to one service line's direct costs, confirms via co-movement that pricing and demand are healthy, and recommends renegotiating the input cost. ## Quick Start Ask the AI to diagnose why a specific metric missed its forecast this month, providing the actual value, forecast value, and line-item breakdown.

Frequently Asked Questions about variance-diagnosis

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I find the root cause of a missed revenue or margin forecast?▼

Provide the metric's actual value, forecast value, and line-item breakdown. The Skill ranks each line item by its contribution to the total variance, identifies the largest driver, and classifies the root cause as execution failure, wrong assumption, external shift, or data error.

How to tell if a favorable cost variance is real savings?▼

Run the co-movement check against related activity metrics. If expenses fell while revenue also fell, the favorable variance is an artifact of stalled activity, not genuine efficiency, and the Skill recommends investigating activity instead of celebrating savings.

What data is required to diagnose a metric variance?▼

Both the actual and forecast values for the metric are mandatory, plus a line-item breakdown for attribution. Related co-moving metrics, underlying forecast assumptions, and prior diagnoses improve accuracy but the diagnosis is flagged as unconfirmed without them.

When should I not run a variance diagnosis?▼

Skip diagnosis when the variance falls within the tolerance band, since that is noise rather than signal. Also avoid it when actual or forecast data is missing, when you need a full monthly review across all metrics, or when choosing which initiative to fund.

How does the skill handle a forecast of zero?▼

A forecast of zero is treated as no comparison rather than an infinite or 100% variance. This guardrail prevents manufacturing misleading signals from metrics that had no meaningful baseline.

Does variance diagnosis require approval before acting on recommendations?▼

Analysis, attribution, and drafting proceed autonomously, but any lever involving spend, pricing changes, public commitments, re-forecasts, or corrections to accounting records is held for founder approval before execution.