probability-base-rate-anchoring

What problem does it solve?

This Skill prevents forecasting mistakes that come from ignoring the outside view, by forcing predictions to start from historical base rates for comparable situations.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Reference-class selection: Helps you define a genuinely similar category of past cases, large enough to have stable frequencies.
• Base-rate discovery: Guides you to state the historical likelihood (or an uncertainty range) before adding any case-specific adjustments.
• Evidence-based adjustment: Structures differentiating factors so they explicitly push probability up or down from the base rate, then combines them into a calibrated range.

Use case example: Before deciding whether a “rare” event is actually likely, you establish the base rate from reference class data, then adjust only for verifiable features—producing a defensible probability range instead of an overconfident guess.

Quick Start

Use the probability-base-rate-anchoring skill to estimate the chance of a specific outcome by first naming the reference class and base rate, then adjusting with only verifiable differentiators.