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probability

Calibrate estimates and decisions using base rates and expected-value computations.

212|23|Updated May 23, 2026
Search Tags:#decision analysis#probability#uncertainty#scenario planning#confidence calibration#expected value#base rate
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/human-avatar/skills-for-humanity --skill probability-human-avatar
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: probability
Source: https://github.com/human-avatar/skills-for-humanity/tree/main/skills/probability
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/human-avatar/skills-for-humanity --skill probability-human-avatar

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you reason about likelihoods, uncertainty, and decision tradeoffs so you can replace vague confidence with probability-grounded conclusions.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Base-rate anchoring: uses reference-class history before adjusting for specifics to avoid overreacting to the details.
  • Confidence calibration: audits whether your stated confidence matches the evidence, identifying overconfidence and underconfidence.
  • Expected value calculation: compares options under uncertainty by weighing outcomes by probability and value.
  • Scenario weighting: builds a small set of mutually exclusive futures with probabilities, then recommends actions weighted across them.
  • Use Cases: picking between options with different risks, quantifying “how likely” claims, testing the validity of confidence levels, and planning across multiple plausible futures.

Quick Start

Use probability routing by asking for help with your situation, estimates, confidence level, or decision under uncertainty (for example: “Given this situation, what are the likely outcomes and how should I decide?”).

Frequently Asked Questions about probability

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate expected value to compare options under uncertainty?▼

Expected value calculation compares uncertain options by weighing each outcome's probability by its value, summing them to recommend the mathematically optimal choice. It replaces vague risk comparisons with quantified, interpretable numeric tradeoffs.

What is base rate anchoring and when do I need it for decision analysis?▼

Base rate anchoring grounds likelihood estimates in reference-class historical data before adjusting for case specifics, preventing overreaction to vivid details. Use it whenever judging probabilities without trustworthy historical context.

How do I audit my confidence calibration for likelihood judgments?▼

Confidence calibration audits whether your stated confidence matches available evidence, flagging overconfidence or underconfidence. It cross-references your probability estimates against base rates to identify systemic bias.

Can I use scenario planning to build mutually exclusive futures with probabilities?▼

Scenario weighting builds a small set of mutually exclusive futures, assigns probabilities to each, and recommends actions weighted across all plausible outcomes. It prevents over-committing to a single predicted future.

What's the best way to quantify how likely a specific claim is?▼

Quantify claim likelihood by routing the situation through probabilistic methods, anchoring to reference-class base rates, and adjusting for specific evidence. This produces an interpretable probability estimate rather than vague confidence.

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