research

Base rates for prediction markets are identified by querying a market index and using embeddings-backed search to surface concise contextual factors and typical outcomes for similar past events.

The best way to check resolution criteria for event markets is by synthesizing market rules and historical references to explain typical outcomes and clarify how specific market mechanics resolve.

To compare prediction market mechanics to historical analogs, use embeddings-backed search to surface and summarize past events, allowing you to evaluate current political or economic markets against historical data.

Yes, this approach works for political, economic, and event prediction markets by relying on a market index to provide reference-grade insights and calibrate expectations across various market types.

You need base rates and historical analogies for prediction market research to calibrate expectations and decisions, solving the problem of quick, structured access to reference-grade data for likely outcomes.